Forecasting Survey

Participating in the Pipeline Project 2 Forecasting Survey allows you to contribute to the project. Additionally, participating also provides financial incentives and authorship credit. Read below for more details.

About the Survey

The Pipeline Project 2 is a crowdsourced initiative to replicate original unpublished studies in independent laboratories. Twelve research groups have each volunteered one unpublished finding, supported by initial evidence from their laboratory, to be replicated by teams in other locations. At each replication site, the same materials and methodology are used in a new data collection with a new participant population. The replication sites differ in many characteristics (sample size, nationalities, etc) which may or may not moderate the replication results. We want to see if you can predict which original effects will replicate, and also variability across cultural contexts and methodological factors. In the survey, you will attempt to predict a priori whether a key effect found in an original study replicates in another setting. In exchange for your valuable time and expertise, you will be compensated financially and be credited as an author on the final project report. We estimate that the survey can take anywhere between 30 and 90 minutes to complete.

Note that the deadline to enroll in and submit the survey is August 31, 2020.

Your Profile
We are recruiting researchers and scientists from all fields to participate in this study. All levels of expertise are welcome, from graduate students to senior professors.

Consortium Authorship Credit
By completing the entire survey, you qualify to be listed as a co-author on the manuscript reporting the results. This will take the form of a consortium credit “Pipeline Project 2 Forecasting Collaboration” in the first page/author string, with all authors listed by name and affiliation in an appendix.

Monetary Compensation
As a reward for participation, we will randomly select two participants and reward them with a bonus payout determined as a function of the accuracy of their forecasts. The reward is based on effect sizes and significance predictions. It can reach a maximum of $200.

As a reward for your time, you will be listed as a co-author on the final manuscript as described earlier. In addition, we will randomly select two participants and reward them with a bonus payout determined as a function of the accuracy of their forecasts: more accurate forecasts in terms of lower average squared prediction error (i.e., the absolute difference between the prediction and the realized outcome) lead to higher bonuses. The bonus payment is determined according to the following scoring rule:

 

               $200 - (Sq.Error x 200)

 

where (Sq.Error) is the average of the squared prediction errors for all the forecasts you are asked to submit regarding the effect sizes and significance. The bonus payment can reach a maximum of $200 (if you make predictions equal to the realized output and if you are selected at random to receive the monetary reward).

Enroll

In order to enroll in the survey, please fill out the form below. Once you submit it, you will receive an email address containing a unique link to the survey. This link allows you to save your progress and work on the survey from multiple devices.

Note: If the form below does not display, please click here to sign up.